Basketball is a fairly unpredictable sport. In any tournament or championship, unexpected, sensational results often happen. There are a number of reasons for this. These include poor form of the favorite, the underdog’s courage, fortune, team motivation, the absence of several leaders, and underestimation of the opponent, to name a few.
Basketball games often offer a very wide spread of outcomes. Bets on the whole game, quarters and halves, as well as individual performances of the teams. In short – a great abundance.
Who is an underdog in betting?
Underdog, aka outsider, in sports betting is a team (or athlete, if we are talking about individual sports), which, according to bookmakers, has less chance of winning the match. Formally, any team, the odds of which are higher than those of its opponent, can be called an underdog. But it should be understood that, firstly, odds are not always reflect the real picture, and, secondly, the presence of fewer odds does not mean their absence. Underdogs often win and below we will look at the strategy for betting on them.
In what matches should I use the strategy?
For betting we choose such matches where the underdog is a tenacious team with character that does not give up after a bad start and fights to the end. We choose such matches where there is a favorite with a handicap from about (-6,5) to (-22,5) per match. In this case, the handicap on the favorite in the quarters will be about (-2) to (-6.5). And the odds of the underdog winning the quarter will range from 2 to 7.
That means there is a clear favorite, but on the other hand the underdog is not desperate and can catch on, if not in the whole match, then in some part of it for sure.
This strategy is more suitable for men’s competitions. All the same women, if the game went wrong, often difficult to pull themselves together and reverse the course of an unsuccessful match, men are much more ambitious and fight to the end. But women also experience inexplicable lapses in the course of a game.
Competitions for youth teams are excellent. After all, young people are unstable and can get frustrated if they’re not careful, and then it’s hard to find their way back into the game.
Also, you have to choose games where the favorite is not too motivated (for example, the end of the championship, not decisive matches, friendly games and tournaments). We take games of not the strongest championships (second or third divisions, leading championships of weak countries). In these leagues there is not too much class, and an unexpected failure in some part of the match of the favorite is more likely.
How to use the strategy?
It is advisable to find information about the teams beforehand. Ideally, if there are some recently played matches, games with common opponents. Even better, if there are personal meetings. We study these matches and find teams-outsiders who can struggle, or favorites who make a start, and then may relax somewhere in the course of the match. This information can be found in the statistics and results sections of bookmakers and other websites with basketball statistics.
On the victory in the quarter of the clear underdog, it is best to bet on the course of the match. It is best to pick games where the underdog lost the first two quarters, but not in one go, and with a struggle (not a very big difference in points, at least 7-12 points scored per quarter).
In basketball, it is not easy for a favorite to win all four quarters. Often, with an advantage after two quarters, after a long break it is difficult for the favorite to adjust, and it may not immediately get back into the game or feel the changes in the underdog’s mood. And besides, it’s trivial to expect the favorite to hold back its leaders for one quarter and field understudies.
In this case, the losing team could easily win the quarter. You can bet on the victory of the underdog at high odds before the start of the third quarter, you can wait for 1-2 minutes after it starts, and then make a bet. If the favorite continues to lead in the score and in the third part of the match, you can refrain from betting on this quarter. If you can see that the favorite scores less and the underdog scores more and less, then either the favorite has a substitution, or the game is about to change. We bet on the underdog, as long as the bookmaker’s office offers high odds.
If also the third quarter of the meeting ended with the victory of the favorite, there is still an opportunity to bet on the 4th part of the match. If the favorite’s advantage in the game is already large (12-25 points), it may well quit, quietly playing to keep the score.
In this case, the losing team can easily win the quarter. You can bet on the victory of the underdog at high odds before the start of the third quarter, you can wait 1-2 minutes after it starts, and then make a bet. If the favorite continues to lead in the score and in the third part of the match, you can refrain from betting on this quarter. If you can see that the favorite scores less and the underdog scores more and less, then either the favorite has a substitution, or the game is about to change. We bet on the outsider, as long as the bookmaker’s office offers high odds.
If also the third quarter of the meeting ended with the victory of the favorite, there is still an opportunity to bet on the 4th part of the match. If the advantage of the favorite in the game will already be large (12-25 points), it may well abandon the game, quietly playing to keep the score.
In this situation, the outsider has an excellent chance to cut the gap, and, accordingly, to win the quarter. We bet on a plus match handicap, if the bookmaker’s office does not give a quarter, or on the outsider’s victory in the quarter. Again, at the very beginning of the final stretch it is better not to bet, it is better to wait 1-2 minutes and see how the score develops. If a struggle ensued, or if the favorite suddenly lost performance, and the outsider, on the contrary, increased – this is a great opportunity to bet. But again, once again, before betting we have to study the underdog. We do not want a hopeless outsider, who loses to everyone without a will, but a team that fights and does not give up until the end.
Do not bet large sums, because when it comes to odds of 3-6 or more, we are dealing with a very high proportion of risk. But with a competent selection of matches to bet on, this strategy can be fruitful.
Conclusion
In principle, a favorite can lose any quarter in a game to a weaker team. But most often this happens in 3-4 quarters, when there is an advantage, and you can relax a little, rest, conserve strength, let the double team play. It is very difficult to run at breakneck speed for the whole game in basketball, there can be small slumps in some parts of the game.
That’s what we need. We wait for the beginning of the break in the game and make a bet. It is possible to make less risky bets for the 3rd and 4th quarter – on the plus handicap of the outsider. It is extremely difficult to smash your opponent the whole game. Also an important condition: if a bet was made on the third quarter, and it was successful, it is better to skip the 4th quarter, still, it is unlikely that the favorite of the match will lose 2 quarters in a row.
Most basketball games consist of four quarters (2×20 in the NCAA). And it’s not always the case that the favorite beats the underdog in all four quarters. Only if you’re talking about an overwhelming, colossal advantage of one team over the other. In all other matches, a profitable strategy is to bet on the victory of the underdog in the quarter. Let us tell you in more detail where, how and when to bet on this strategy.
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